The Budget, Capital Gains and Politics

A couple weeks back, the Obama Administration submitted its fiscal year 2011 budget outlining the government's plans for tax change. But reports indicate that the timetable for tax hikes may delayed. Some Democratic Congress members are worried that going along with the Obama Administration's increases might cause their re-election bids to fail. So how might this affect capital gains tax in 2010 and beyond?

For joint filers making more than $250,000 (some report this number around $231,000)and single filers making more than $200,000 (including the amount of the gain, keep in mind), Obama has proposed increasing the tax rate to 20% for long-term capital gains (and qualified dividends). The current rate of 15% would be extended for those making less than these amounts.

Nine years later, most have embraced and accepted the policy to tax capital gains and qualified dividend at the same special rate. However, because of this generally accepted principle, there is the possibility that long term capital gains rates may go higher than Obama's 20% proposal. The justification lies in the qualified dividend half of the "same treatment" proposal. If dividends were treated as ordinary income, rates could go as high as 36%. Congress may decide, under the recently enacted Pay-Go rules, that deficit issues and budget scoring require a higher rate. Some have indicated a "blended" same treatement rate of 25% or 28% is a very real possibility.

There is also the potential that November elections will concern enough Congress members to simply extend the Bush tax cuts for another year. Avoiding any action this year would mean the Bush capital gains tax cut would expire at the end of 2010. Many argue (or perhaps justify their lack of action - depending on your political perspective) that now is not the time to raise capital gain tax rates. With the economy in a fragile state of perceived tepid recovery, they should wait to take any action that would raise taxes.

So how do the proposed increases impact your decision to sell investment property? Some time back, we posted a blog about how this tax change may impact your decision to defer the gain through a 1031 exchange. Most would think that paying 15% now sounds a whole lot better than paying 20%, or worse, 25% or 28% some time down the road. But even with tax rates increasing, in many cases, it still may make sense to defer the gain (versus paying 15% tax that is gone today). The answer depends on the marginal increase in taxes, the amount of time you aniticipate holding the asset and your expected cash-on-cash expected rate of return over that period. If you earn a rate of return, and anticipate holding the replacement asset for a length of time, the answer may surprise you. The time value of holding on to that tax money can be powerful!

Discussing your individual situation with your tax advisor is recommended. Of course, you can and/or your tax professional can always contact 1031 Corporation Exchange Professionals for free consultation of your like-kind exchange questions. Even the call is free 888-367-1031.